Here I am, getting ready to go to work and all I can think about is the GP Sydney Vintage side event and what I am going to play. Sure there is a Legacy event and maybe even the main event to play in but it is the Vintage event that interests me the most. I have had the unfortunate news that a group of players I thought would be attending are not so I am really unsure about how many players there will be. I hope that it’s not so small that they have to cut back their prize support even further. With first prize only being ebay fodder (RTR uncut sheet) and second a Timetwister, there is really not much incentive to bring in lots of players and I certainly know of players who are skipping the event to go to Can Con where the prize at 24 players is a Mox Jet and the highlander event has a Ruby. I suppose there’s no way around the fact for either party involved but having two interstate events on two consecutive weeks makes it very hard to justify attending both to work, schooling and partners.
But I am not here to gripe, I am here to run you through my thought process about choosing a deck for GP Sydney.
Sanctioned Vintage
First to note is that GP Sydney’s Vintage event is sanctioned, this is a very important to note. Sanctioned Vintage amounts to zero proxies. Zero proxies means that peoples deck choice or build choice will be limited to the power that they own or are able to borrow from other players. This will probably lead to a reduction in the formats most expensive decks. The 10 proxy meta game we live in tends to have people collect many of the cards for their deck and then slowly acquire power as they can. I expect that there will be fewer workshops than “normal” as the deck has a huge barrier to entry in all the mana artefacts as well as 4 Mishra’s Workshop. Other very expensive decks such as Dragon (Power 8 + Time Vault + 4 Bazaars) and storm (Power 9 absolutely necessary) will also have fewer players than normal. I believe that this will lead to more players playing either:
a) unpowered decks
b) decks which require little power or the presence of power is not required to function
Decks which fall under (a) such as Jacob Dunn’s GW deck or any legacy deck that players port over from the Legacy will undoubtable be tier 2 decks but will certainly make their presence known. It does not take much change for say Legacy RUG, Landstill or BUG to become a real contender for top 8. One factor in almost all of these decks will be the presence of creatures. This means three things to the rest of the meta.
i) Decks with lots of creatures and removal can be strong vs the already diminishing number of Shops pilots.
ii) More creature removal will be necessary in the sideboards of the Blue decks
iii) Creatures make Oath a more attractive option.
Decks which fall under category (b) such as Dredge, Dark Times and Landstill will be popular options for the players who already play vintage regularly and do not own the power for a fully powered deck such as Grixis Control or Workshops. Dredge can run as little as 0 pieces of power and the others generally only require a Mox or two. These decks each attack the meta from a different angle making it difficult to meta game against them all. If one of these decks can find unprepared opponents they can go deep.
Attacking the meta game
I am viewing the meta for GP Sydney as:
1) Heavy on Blue decks and Dredge
2) A higher number of the decks discussed above
3)Lower on shops, storm and Dragon (e.g. expensive decks).
That is not to say that they will not be present, but there will be less than normal and the chance of running into one is diminished. I will be discussing each of these tiers separately. These are not power tiers but tiered levels of play.
This means to make it to the top tables you need to place yourself in a good position to beat the decks higher on that list and possibly be willing to sacrifice percentage points in the matchup’s vs. the decks lower down. Now obviously you want to be playing the best deck in the room and have awesome matchups around the board but I think by being willing to shave some percentage points vs the decks that have less chance of showing up you put yourself in a stronger position to do well.
Tier 1
Decks that have a natural advantage vs Dredge are few and far between but they do exist. Dark Times (especially if you MD leylines) has a natural advantage over Dredge due to the disruption that it has in both MD and SB which generally include some number of:
Leyline of the Void
Extirpate
Surgical Extraction
Leyline of the Void
Pithing Needle
It also has a relatively quick combo kill
Here is my list that took 9th place at Masters 2011 updated for 2013
2 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth
10 Swamp
4 Wasteland
3 Dark Depths
1 Mox Jet
4 Dark Confidant
4 Vampire Hexmage
4 Dark Ritual
4 Duress
4 Thoughtseize
4 Leyline of the Void
2 Lilliana of the Veil
1 Diabolic Edict
Tendrils of Agony
2 Pithing Needle
Null Rod
Necropotence
Helm of Obedience
Cruicible of Worlds
Demonic Consultation
Demonic Tutor
Vampiric Tutor
Yawgmoth's Will
Lotus Petal
Strip Mine
SIDEBOARD
2 Emissary of Despair
Snuff Out
Darkblast
Sadistic Sacrament
Engineered Explosives
Engineered Plague
Mindbreak Trap
Ravenous Trap
2 Yixlid Jailer
Diabolic Edict
3 Mental Misstep
Some of the control decks in the format main deck a Nihil Spellbomb or Grafdiggers Cage but generally Dredge has the advantage over most of the format, especially game 1. This makes Dredge a potent deck choice for Sydney however sideboards from previous sanctioned events show lots of anti dredge cards still in sideboards so be prepared to face hate.
The blue (non-aggro) decks generally sit on a continuum based upon how many creatures they are playing. On one hand we have decks like Oath or 5CC (which do not use creatures or only use a small number as finishers) and on the other we have decks like RUG Delver which use the red zone as their win condition and use their control elements to keep their opponent on the back foot. Decks like Grixis control sit in the middle and have Bobs and Snapcasters but can win the game without ever casting one. Because of blues versatility, there are a number of ways of approaching the blue decks.
Of course you can just hate the blue players off the table…
Creatures (8)
· 1 Goblin Welder
· 3 Trinket Mage
Planeswalkers
(3)
Lands
(15)
· 2 Island
· 1 Mountain
· 3 Ancient Tomb
· 4 Scalding Tarn
· 1 Underground Sea
· 3 Volcanic Island
· 1 Tolarian Academy
Spells
(34)
· 1 Black Lotus
· 1 Grindstone
· 1 Mana Crypt
· 1 Mox Emerald
· 1 Mox Jet
· 1 Mox Pearl
· 1 Mox Ruby
· 1 Mox Sapphire
· 1 Pithing Needle
· 1 Sol Ring
· 1 Ancestral Recall
· 1 Brainstorm
· 1 Fact or Fiction
· 2 Flusterstorm
· 4 Force of Will
· 1 Gifts Ungiven
· 1 Misdirection
· 1 Mystical Tutor
· 2 Pyroblast
· 1 Mox Opal
· 1 Demonic Tutor
· 1 Time Walk
· 1 Tinker
· 1 Yawgmoth's Will
Sideboard
· 1 Pithing Needle
· 1 Tormod's Crypt
· 1 Hurkyl's Recall
· 2 Lightning Bolt
· 2 Pyroblast
· 1 Rack and Ruin
· 1 Rebuild
Painter is not very popular in Australia. In the past, Painter has struggled with workshop opponents and with proxies making shops an easier deck to get into painter may have seemed like a worse option. However if you don’t expect many workshops and lots of blue decks you can hardly go wrong with packing your Red Blasts. With Painters Servant powering up Red Elemental Blast you get R: Counter target spell or destroy target permanent. Seems good! Having a base in red means you will always have access to Goblin Welder, Shattering Spree and Ingot Chewer to sure up the Shops matchup, you also have easy access to Lighting Bolt which will become important later.
Being able to out-counter your opponent can be very important in determining the outcome in a blue on blue match. This is why painter has an edge here, it can run up to 8 counters that just say NO to everything the Blue player wants to do. Landstill and Laboratory Maniac Doomsday also use a similar philosophy. By not running “threats” in a traditional sense it can outlast the other blue decks in counterwars.
Discard is also a strong tactic against most blue decks. While it is certainly stronger vs the creatureless builds than the decks packing creatures it can set wreak havoc with your opponents’ plans. Opening the game with a discard spell can shut your opponent off whole lines of play. Discard is the tool of the Combo. Decks like Ad Nauseum and Dark Times often pack 5-8 discard spells which make them strong choices for the blue matchup. A not often attested to synergy is a discard spell followed by an extraction.
Tier 2
Creatures, Creatures, Creatures everywhere.
While not all the decks in this tier will be running creatures, a great many of them will be. It’s a simple fact that when you can’t have the most broken plays that full power allows you, you have to go with the most efficient, generally that amounts to creatures. Some decks try to create overwhelming advantage via synergy (Goblins) while some just use the best spells in their colours (Noble Fish). In addition to creatures you should be prepared for Removal (Swords, Path), Land Hate (Wasteland, Strip mine), Discard (Duress, Thoughtseize) and Burn (Lightning Bolt).
When lots of creatures are involved you have to meta game in a very different way to the proxy Vintage meta game. Cards like Doom Blade, Lightning Bolt, Swords to Ploughshares all become much better and each has its own strengths and weaknesses. Also traditional sideboard cards such as Firespout and Pyroclasm become much stronger when you expect creatures on the other side of the field.
Decks which have a natural strength against creatures usually have a few things in common
1) A fast win condition, whether a fast combo or Dredge. If you can kill them before turn 2-4 (for the faster decks) or put yourself far enough ahead you can sidestep the combat step they are trying to fight you with.
2) Decks with bigger creatures, Noble Fish or Christmas Beatings can generally shrug off some damage before landing a Goyf or Kazuul to stop the bleeding.
3) Oath of Druids, when your opponent is playing creatures you can laugh all the way to the bank.
So you need a way to invalidate creatures or be able to beat them. Short of running a full on combo deck you want to choose between Oath or bigger creatures. With the advent of Grafdigger’s Cage I would be hesitant to be playing a dedicated Oath deck so maybe bigger creatures are the way to go.
1 Ancestral Recall
4 Daze
4 Force of Will
1 Time Walk
1 Cold-Eyed Selkie
2 Deathrite Shaman
4 Meddling Mage
4 Qasali Pridemage
3 Trygon Predator
3 Green Sun's Zenith
4 Noble Hierarch
1 Scavenging Ooze
3 Tarmogoyf
3 Swords to Ploughshares
1 Black Lotus
1 Mox Emerald
1 Mox Pearl
1 Mox Sapphire
1 Dryad Arbor
1 Forest
1 Island
4 Misty Rainforest
1 Strip Mine
3 Tropical Island
3 Tundra
4 Wasteland
SB:
4 Grafdigger's Cage
4 Mental Misstep
3 Rest in Peace
4 Serenity
Noble Fish embodies everything you need to do to fight creatures, It has early game removal in the form of Swords and has bigger creatures in the late game. Note that you also get Force of Will and Mental Misstep for the blue matches and Rest in Peace for Dredge.
Tier 3
Shops, Storm and Dragon.
I fully expect these to be the least played decks at GP Sydney. The expense as well as number of power cards needed to build each deck is huge in comparison to the other decks listed so far.
Dragon is another deck that is not very popular in Australia. It’s a deck that preys on the unprepared and uninitiated and can be very powerful and is quick to execute its combo. It is also immune to Mental Misstep, Misdirection and has a transformational sideboard to screw with its opponent. I don’t expect anyone to play Dragon but note that it is a deck and may turn up.
Storm is generally eaten by shops so may be a good choice for Sydney as shops may not be as present as would normally be expected. In a creature centric meta game Thalia is worse in the Fish decks so it may be not as popular. However the expense of this deck is through the roof as all the power 9 are necessary to its function and therefore difficult to build.
Shops will be a poor choice for GP Sydney as it can struggle with creatures (unless you want to play BC’s 2nd place list from Gen Con 2012) and its prey (Storm) will be less represented than you might expect. It can still eat the blue decks alive but the almost universal adoption of 4x Ingot Chewer can be hard to fight through when you have your deck loaded to fight creatures.
Summary
You need to be able to fight the Dredge and blue decks with a high degree of consistency. Cards like Mental Misstep and Flusterstorm gain value due to being able to fight your opponent (or their counter-hate vs dredge) but these cards are not so great vs the decks in tier 2. It depends on your deck but some number of these cards should make it into your deck. Red Blast is also a good catchall as it can kill Delvers, Trygon Predator and Jaces as well as counter many important spells. You also want a way to beat the creatures coming at you. This pushes the value of removal or creature trumps up.
So what do I think will be good choices for GP Sydney. With infinite time and money I believe storm to be the best choice due to the lack of shops and infighting between the blue decks and creature decks. If by some miracle I can get full power 9 and Burning Wishes before then I will probably play Burning Tendrills.
Being more realistic, I believe the following decks are all strong choices:
Dark Times
Dark Times has a good to great matchup vs the blue and dredge decks and is reasonable vs the creature decks due to first strike and quick combo potential. With its natural predator (Shops) diminished it can really shine.
Bomberman
Bomberman continues the trend of being good vs blue due to the high density of counterspells, has game vs dredge in game 1 and has both swords and big creatures for the tier 2 decks.
Painter
Painter while being weaker against dredge in game 1 makes up for its strength against the other decks. Lightning Bolt, Red Blast and a Combo kill are all good signs for the strength of this deck. Welder + Tormod’s Crypt = Gas. The deck becomes stronger still if people continue to trend of moving away from Emrakul as Oath target to Griselbrand.
Noble Fish
Access to Rest in Peace, swords and very good and efficient creatures with exalted means this deck is a very solid deck for the expected Sydney meta game
Dredge
With more creatures about, Dredge becomes very good. I want to be running both Black and White Leylines in the main and max out on Ichorids, Bloodghast and run some number of Darkblasts/Contagion between main and side board.
Some other points to consider
~I would not run Oath with less than 4 Mental Misstep and some natures claim. Cage will be everywhere and you must be able to answer it.
~ I expect wastelands to be popular, maybe Loam or a Pithing Needle can make it to the main
~Expect Abrupt Decays to make a show. My Next Level BUG list is very good and could easily incorporate Abrupt Decay.
~ BUG overall I think is weaker than Grixis right now. Bolt is better than claim with more creatures around.
~ Landstill is weaker than it was, I will not be bringing Landstill to GP Sydney
I hope some of you found this interesting
Until next time.
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